Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 1.520631 1.589293 1.660764 1.740971 1.828793 1.922394 2.030184
2026-01-25 1.414209 1.502579 1.597533 1.707859 1.833453 1.973135 2.141907
2026-02-01 1.349767 1.451741 1.563962 1.697904 1.855197 2.036402 2.264580
2026-02-08 1.296967 1.408397 1.533371 1.685824 1.869542 2.087659 2.372556
2026-02-15 1.251640 1.369895 1.504618 1.672006 1.878245 2.129679 2.469182
2026-02-22 1.222503 1.347928 1.492956 1.676359 1.907305 2.196454 2.600524
2026-03-01 1.177529 1.304847 1.453560 1.643929 1.887336 2.197939 2.643062
2026-03-08 1.142271 1.271751 1.424443 1.622198 1.878815 2.212465 2.702891
2026-03-15 1.114189 1.246090 1.403074 1.608702 1.879448 2.238119 2.779153
2026-03-22 1.105029 1.242904 1.408927 1.629584 1.925678 2.327798 2.956151
2026-03-29 1.100152 1.244546 1.420495 1.657868 1.982764 2.435863 3.171931
2026-04-05 1.079942 1.226280 1.405991 1.650860 1.990517 2.472904 3.278335
2026-04-12 1.063729 1.213037 1.398035 1.653009 2.012230 2.533536 3.433482
2026-04-19 1.034940 1.183009 1.367383 1.623139 1.986658 2.520798 3.461188
2026-04-26 1.016495 1.165631 1.352579 1.614177 1.990518 2.553098 3.571416
2026-05-03 0.998297 1.148040 1.336883 1.603229 1.990665 2.579160 3.672819
2026-05-10 0.980433 1.130398 1.320547 1.590670 1.987599 2.599514 3.765423
2026-05-17 0.970045 1.122104 1.316258 1.594640 2.009153 2.660838 3.945284
2026-05-24 0.947265 1.097135 1.289006 1.565103 1.978333 2.633041 3.941101
2026-05-31 0.929112 1.077871 1.268985 1.545282 1.961613 2.628000 3.983845
2026-06-07 0.914530 1.063000 1.254527 1.532962 1.955906 2.641243 4.067048
2026-06-14 0.912165 1.064136 1.261716 1.552022 1.999927 2.743442 4.361477
2026-06-21 0.912277 1.068489 1.273317 1.577808 2.055819 2.871385 4.743321